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The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found small increases in perceived past inflation and expected inflation over the next year, while longer-term inflation expectations were unchanged. Respondents also expected weaker economic growth and higher unemployment, alongside faster income, spending and home-price growth.
The European Central Bank reported that euro area consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose slightly in September, while expectations for economic growth weakened and expected unemployment increased. The monthly survey, published on 23 October, also found higher expectations for nominal income, spending and home-price growth, with longer-term inflation expectations unchanged.
Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months increased to 3.6% from 3.5% in August. Median inflation expectations for the coming year rose to 3.1% from 3.0%. By contrast, expectations three years ahead remained at 2.9%, and those five years ahead stayed at 2.5%. The ECB said uncertainty about near-term inflation expectations increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Consumers expected nominal income growth of 1.1% over the next 12 months, up from 1.0% in August. Expected nominal spending growth also edged higher, to 3.7% from 3.6%; perceived spending growth over the previous year increased to 5.3% from 5.2%. These figures describe survey responses and do not establish how household income or spending will change in practice.
Expectations for economic growth over the next year fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. Consumers expected home prices to rise by 3.5% over the coming year, compared with 3.4% in August. Expected mortgage rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%, unchanged from July. The ECB also reported that the net share of households saying credit access had tightened, and the net share expecting tighter access, both increased from August.
Households See More Economic Pressure
The results show a mixed household outlook: short-term inflation expectations edged up, while respondents anticipated weaker growth and a higher unemployment rate. For policymakers, these views offer an additional measure of how consumers perceive prices and the economic outlook alongside official data. The ECB says the survey is used for policy analysis and complements other sources; it does not, by itself, determine policy decisions.
Differences across income groups also matter. Respondents in the bottom income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations on average than those in the top quintile. They also expected higher unemployment and mortgage rates, and faster home-price growth. Such gaps indicate that households may experience or anticipate economic conditions differently, although the survey does not establish the causes of those differences.
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How the ECB Survey Was Conducted
The ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of around 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The September wave’s fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026, so responses were gathered across that period rather than on a single day.
The ECB said the figures in the release generally refer to the 2% winsorised mean, a statistical measure that limits the influence of extreme observations. The inflation figures are presented as medians. The results do not represent the views of the ECB’s decision-making bodies or staff. Underlying microdata and country-level aggregate results are available through the ECB’s data resources.
““Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months decreased in September to -1.5%, from -1.2% in August.””
— European Central Bank
What Survey Responses Cannot Show
The release reports consumer expectations, not a forecast of what inflation, growth, unemployment, house prices or borrowing costs will actually be. It does not explain what drove the changes between August and September, and it provides no causal link between the reported expectations and future economic outcomes. The ECB also does not give a single measure of how large the change in credit access was in the summary release, beyond saying the net percentages increased.
The results reflect responses collected across 11 euro area countries and do not, by themselves, show how views vary in every country or how representative each reported change is for individual households. The ECB cautions that the survey is one input for analysis and does not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff.
October Results Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of the October 2026 survey results for 27 November. Readers can compare that release with September’s figures for changes in inflation, growth, employment, housing and credit expectations. The ECB also makes survey microdata and country-level aggregates available through its CES webpage and Data Portal.
Key Questions
When did the ECB publish the September survey results?
The ECB published the results on 23 October 2026. Fieldwork for the survey ran from 27 August to 28 September.
How did consumers’ inflation expectations change?
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August. Expectations three and five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively.
What did respondents expect for growth and unemployment?
Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 11.3% from 11.0%.
Does the survey predict what the economy will do?
No. It records consumer perceptions and expectations. The ECB uses the results for policy analysis alongside other data, and says they do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff.
When are the next results scheduled?
The ECB said the October 2026 results are scheduled for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
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